Bayes’ Formula is frequently presented in statistics texts as important (it is), profound (it isn’t, particularly), and difficult (it isn’t, remotely).  If you understand conditional probability, then Bayes’ Formula is trivial.  Let me show you: We start with the probability of two events, A and B: \[P(AB)\ =\ P(A|B)\ ×\ P(B)\] Similarly, for the probability […]

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